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Industry experts’ property market predictions for 2014 – Part 3

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Here we present more opinion from some of the biggest names in regional and national housebuilding, investment and estate agency. We asked them how they felt the property market might go in 2014, what's in store for forst-time buyers in particular and what they would do if they were made Chancellor of the Exchequer for the day.

What do you think will happen in the UK residential property market in 2014?

John Tutte, group managing director for Redrow Homes: "I think we will continue to see an improvement across all parts of the UK as the economy strengthens. Wales has been a very difficult market for some time but I expect the launch of Help to Buy will give its homebuyers and the housing industry a much-needed boost."

Katie Bond, acting director of Notting Hill Home Ownership: "More of the same in terms of price rises, but I think and hope we will see more innovation from the sector. At Notting Hill Housing, ensuring we keep our homes affordable is key so we are looking at new products and what we can do to make it easier for people to get on the housing ladder."

Chris Endsor, chief executive of Miller Homes: "Demand should continue to rise as the economy recovers, mortgage availability improves and confidence builds. Supply will increase as housebuilders step up production. However, the key to market equilibrium is simple - more planning permissions!"

Douglas Sleaper, sales director of Townends Estate Agents: "A strong first half of the year with prices rising as supply fails to meet the demand from buyers with a slightly quieter second half possibly with prices dipping back to lose some but not all of the gains seen earlier."

Nick Marr, proprietor of The Little House Company: Our prediction for 2014 is that we will see an increase in those seeking to sell a home themselves without an agent as consumers seek to save money on fees. We anticipate that the UK will follow the US in that For Sale By Owner (FSBO) will become a real alternative to an agents sale. 2014 will see a growth of the sector from 2% to 4% of property transactions. The North of England will see the greatest house price rises as property prices attempt to come more in line with house prices in the South. London and South East will see a slowdDown in house prices raises compared to 2013 however as always some local markets such as those in central London will still see significant rises brought on by overseas money."

Mark Manning, sales director of Manning Stainton: "Depending on what happens at the start of 2014 with new stock likely to become more available, we could see a shift away from this being a buyers' market."

Robin King, director of Move with Us: "Government incentives to purchase property, such as the Help to Buy scheme, will create a market where there is likely to be more buyers than sellers in 2014 with a resulting increase in house prices of between 5-8% in some regions. In cities such as Cambridge, Bath and Oxford the consistent rises that we have already seen throughout 2013 will continue in 2014."

Will the planned increase in housebuilding, along with better mortgage choice, give first-time buyers (FTBs) more hope in 2014 than in 2013?

Gary Ennis, southern regional managing director for Barratt Homes: "Certainly the new planning regime is starting to work. Q3 saw the highest total of homes come through planning since 2007 and was up 31% on the same period last year. With reference to FTBs having more hope in 2014 than 2013, we feel that 2013 was a fantastic year for them with the mortgage rates being exceptionally low and the government's Help to Buy initiative in operation for houses up to a healthy £600,000."

Brendan Cox, managing director of Waterfords estate agents: "Yes, definitely. This along with everything else that is happening in the property market, particularly the Help to Buy scheme which is helping FTBs who would otherwise still be living with their parents or in rented accommodation. With help from this government scheme, this sector of the market are now saying that this could be the year that they are able to buy their first home. Other financial support will come from savvy parents who are quickly realising that they need to help their children where they can. They are happier to do this as they now have more confidence in the housing market. The prospect for FTBs is going to be good."

James Wyatt, partner of Barton Wyatt: "I'm not sure we will see a significant increase in housebuilding, but there will be plenty for sale during the year, and mortgages are freely available (if you can put up with the unbelievable amount of paperwork). Help to Buy is out there, but having limited impact on the market. Overall, FTBs really do have the best opportunity to buy since 2008 - time to get on the bandwagon!

Kevin Hartnett, business development director at Hastoe Group: "In some areas - where we see higher increases in values, these may only serve to make properties even more inaccessible. Improving mortgage choice and more shared ownership properties are needed."

Lionel Stoll, sales negotiator with Paramount Properties: "The increase in housebuilding will always offer a potential and vital hope of homeownership as this is essential to increase supply, however raising a good deposit level has traditionally been the block to gaining a mortgage based on lenders' criteria and requirements."

If you were Chancellor for the day and could implement one change to the property market in 2014, what would it be?

Simon Bradbury, director of Fine & Country St Neots: "If I were Chancellor I would exempt genuine first-time buyers from Stamp Duty as an encouragement for them to buy."

Karl Hick, CEO of Larkfleet Group: "Larkfleet enjoys a professional working relationship with many councils but a small number of local politicians prevent us delivering national housing policies to meet pressing housing needs. I would like to see this ‘NIMBY' attitude addressed and overcome so Larkfleet (and other housebuilders) can continue to meet local housing demand in 2014. It is probably more than the Chancellor could deliver in a day but we need some legislation to stop blatantly self-interested councillors (who invariably own their own homes) preventing developments that would help people who don't."

Killian Hurley, executive chairman of Mount Anvil: "The key to a long-term sustainable property market is to increase supply. The majority of land in the UK is owned by the government and local authorities. So if I was Chancellor for the day, I'd speed up the release of land to ease the current shortage of supply."

Edward Hall, head of agency at the Marlborough office of Smiths Gore: "As a national company, we recognise the huge regional variations in property prices and values. Back in 1993 there was only one rate of Stamp Duty - 1% - which started at £60,000. Now we have five rates: 1%, 3%, 4%, 5% and 7%. More than two-thirds of families pay it when they move and 183,000 a year pay the punitive 3% rate or even more. From the North of Scotland to central London, the stamp duty applies irrespective, but yet the difference in property values is massive. A review of the stamp duty rates, especially in light of the huge price inflation over the last 15 years, is long overdue."

Trevor Hill, regional director of land and new homes for Connells: "I would look to lift all Stamp Duty Land Tax thresholds, with the lowest raised from £125,000 to £200,000. This would clearly benefit FTBs and help to further stimulate both the second-hand and new homes markets."

 


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