Following on from our first look at some of the industry's hopes and wishes for the UK property market in 2014 yesterday, here's a second slice of wisdom from some of the biggest names in regional and national housebuilding, investment and estate agency.
What do you think will happen in the UK residential property market in 2014?
Alan Brown, chief executive of CALA Homes: "I'm expecting 2014 to be a repeat of 2013 with a strong sales market and an increase in the number of new homes being built as we start to see the positive effect of changes in the planning system. House price rises will vary from region to region but overall I believe the national picture will be one of moderate house price inflation."
Edward Hall, head of agency at the Marlborough office of Smiths Gore: "All the indices bode fair for a strong, active market but - especially outside London - not the widely hyped housing bubble. With the Nationwide reporting over 8% rise for 2013, the likelihood is that a 5-10% rise is on the cards for 2014. For first-time buyers, now is a good time to buy."
Guy Gusterson, managing director of St. Modwen Homes: "There will be greater levels of activity, but at a stable pace. As we've seen in 2013, construction output has certainly risen over the last 12 months, with many housebuilders including ourselves, reporting a healthy number of off-plan sales - virtually unheard of since 2008. However, though the feeling in the marketplace remains positive, with the new regulatory environment and the likely increase in interest rates over the coming years, I think it very unlikely that we'll see a ‘boom' or ‘bubble' as some people have suggested."
Nicholas Spencer, sales negotiator at Henry & James: "There will continue to be price increases in prime and greater London, but probably not at the pace that we have seen in the last 18 months. The foreign and investment diversification demand has eased, the mortgage market has loosened and the domestic investment market has cooled. Inner and outer suburbs - particularly the commuter belt - will see the most growth. The ripple effect will continue to push prices up following the history of southwest London: Fulham, Battersea, Clapham, Wandsworth, Tooting, Earlsfield, Southfields and Balham. And as jobs feel more secure the attraction of selling up and moving out of London, to get 'twice the size for half the price' will grow ever stronger. Communications are key, as always, as are transport links."
Sue Foxley, research director for Cluttons: "The pace of price growth in the residential market is pushing homeownership further out of reach for large numbers of those living and working in London. The pace of growth will inevitably slow, but with the spectre of rising interest rates over the medium term, life in the capital will remain a challenge."
Will the planned increase in housebuilding, along with better mortgage choice, give first-time buyers (FTBs) more hope in 2014 than in 2013?
Mark Wright, managing director of David Wilson Homes: "Yes, I think so. But let's not forget that it's other homebuyers, such as those with growing families, who have also struggled over the last five years."
Tony Dowse, chairman of eco-housebuilder Environ Communities: "I think that the improvements are not going to be significant and that it is necessary to look at alternative forms of housing for FTBs to enable them to get on the housing ladder. Scandinavia can teach us a few lessons."
Killian Hurley, executive chairman of Mount Anvil: "Yes, and schemes like Help to Buy are also helping. At The Filaments, Mount Anvil's development in Wandsworth, we've sold a significant number of homes under Help to Buy. Without that support, those people might not otherwise have been able to buy in the place they wanted to live."
Simon Bradbury, director of Fine & Country St Neots: "I expect that the increased mortgage options available for all buyers due to the Help to Buy scheme will assist FTBs. The expected increase in new-build units will also help with the supply side. I also expect that there will also be an increase in resale instructions as owners who have waited to sell now start to believe that 2014 is the right time to move."
If you were Chancellor for the day and could implement one change to the property market in 2014, what would it be?
Graham Davidson, managing director of Sequre Property Investment: "Whilst Capital Gains Tax will soon be applied to foreign property investors, we believe the introduction of an increased level of Stamp Duty would actually prove a more immediate solution to a property bubble forming in London. This would need to be carefully introduced to avoid a sudden shock to the market."
John Tutte, group managing director for Redrow Homes: "I would reform Stamp Duty. The current ‘slab' approach creates artificial pricing. Even a modestly priced home attracts a high level of tax. Can it be right that a first-time buyer in some parts of the country has to find 3% of the purchase price for tax having saved hard to raise a 5% deposit?"
David Bentley, partner at Bidwells in Cambridge: "Infrastructure. This is so desperately needed and is taking too long to deliver. What would I do to change it? Make sure it is delivered and not delayed further and doesn't get held up through the planning process. We can tweak what we like on other property market elements, whether through Stamp Duty, the Help to Buy scheme etc, but unless we deliver the grass roots the rest is almost irrelevant.
James Wyatt, partner of Barton Wyatt: "Parking myself in No.11 - I would make deposits of UK resident FTBs tax deductible. An instant fix!"